Welcome.

I am Lucas Böttcher. Below you can find some information about me and my research.

About

Current and Past Positions
Education
Memberships


Publications

Articles
  1. Y. Ge, L. Böttcher, T. Chou, M. R. D'Orsogna, A knapsack for collective decision-making, arXiv:2409.13236
  2. J. Zhang, X. Li, X. Guo, Z. You, L. Böttcher, A. Mogilner, T. Chou, A. Hoffmann, M. Xia, Reconstructing noisy gene regulation dynamics using neural stochastic differential equations, preprint
  3. N. Owusu-Boaitey, L. Böttcher, D. He, R. Erkhembayar, L. Yang, D.-H. Kim, A. Barchuk, D. H. Gorski, J. Howard, Impact of cross-reactivity and herd immunity on SARS-CoV-2 pandemic severity, Infect. Dis. (2024)
  4. J. Li, T. Asikis, I. Fragkos, L. Böttcher, idinn: Inventory-dynamics control with neural networks, GitLab repo
  5. L. Böttcher, M. R. D'Orsogna, T. Chou, Improving medical decision making through aggregation of repeated tests, arXiv:2409.16442
  6. L. Böttcher, L. L. Fonseca, R. C. Laubenbacher, Control of medical digital twins with artificial neural networks, Philos. Trans. Royal Soc. A (2024), arXiv:2403.13851, biorxiv:2024.03.18.585589, GitLab repo
  7. L. Böttcher, M. A. Porter, Dynamical processes on metric networks, arXiv:2401.00735, GitLab repo
  8. L. L. Fonseca, L. Böttcher, B. Mehrad, R. C. Laubenbacher, Surrogate modeling and control of medical digital twins, arXiv:2402.05750, GitHub repo
  9. L. Böttcher, T. Chou, M. R. D'Orsogna, Forecasting drug overdose mortality by age in the United States at the national and county levels, PNAS Nexus (2024), arXiv:2309.14452, medRxiv:2023.09.25.23296097
  10. H. Masoomy, T. Chou, L. Böttcher, Impact of random and targeted disruptions on information diffusion during outbreaks, Chaos 33, 033145 (2023), arXiv:2301.00748, GitLab repo
  11. L. Böttcher, M. A. Porter, Complex networks with complex weights, Phys. Rev. E 109, 024314 (2024), arXiv:2212.06257, GitLab repo
  12. L. Böttcher, J. J. F. Breedvelt, F. C. Warren, Z. Segal, W. Kuyken, C. L. H. Bockting, Identifying relapse predictors in individual participant data with decision trees, BMC Psychiatry 23, 835 (2023), PsyArXiv:69ezt
  13. L. Böttcher, G. Wheeler, Visualizing high-dimensional loss landscapes with Hessian directions, J. Stat. Mech. Theory Exp., 023401 (2024), arXiv:2208.13219, GitLab repo
  14. L. Böttcher, T. Chou, M. R. D'Orsogna, Modeling and forecasting age-specific overdose mortality in the United States, Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. 232, 1743--1752 (2023), arXiv:2303.16172
  15. L. Böttcher, R. Klingebiel, Organizational selection of innovation, Organ. Sci. (2024), arXiv:2405.09843
  16. L. Böttcher, T. Asikis, Near-optimal control of dynamical systems with neural ordinary differential equations, Mach. Learn.: Sci. Technol. 3, 045004 (2022), arXiv:2206.11120, Gitlab repo
  17. D. Wernli, L. Böttcher, F. Vanackere, Y. Kaspiarovich, M. Massood, N. Levrat, Understanding and governing systemic crises in the 21st century: a review from a complexity perspective, Glob. Policy 14, 207--228 (2023)
  18. L. Böttcher, S. Wald, T. Chou, Mathematical characterization of private and public immune repertoire sequences, Bull. Math. Biol. 85, 102 (2023), arXiv:2205.08750, biorxiv:2022.05.17.492232, Gitlab repo
  19. M. R. D'Orsogna, L. Böttcher, T. Chou, Fentanyl-driven acceleration of racial, gender and geographical disparities in drug overdose deaths in the United States, PLOS Glob. Public Health 3, e0000769 (2023), medRxiv:2022.06.22.22276766
  20. M. Xia, L. Böttcher, T. Chou, Spectrally adapted physics-informed neural networks for solving unbounded domain problems, Mach. Learn.: Sci. Technol. 4, 025024 (2023), arXiv:2202.02710, Gitlab repo
  21. L. Böttcher, T. Asikis, I. Fragkos, Control of dual-sourcing inventory systems using recurrent neural networks, INFORMS J. Comput. 35, 1308--1328 (2023), arXiv:2201.06126, IJoC GitHub repo
  22. N. Antulov-Fantulin, L. Böttcher, On the accuracy of short-term COVID-19 fatality forecasts, BMC Infect. Dis. 22, 251 (2022), arXiv:2107.09891, GitHub repo
  23. L. Böttcher, H. Gersbach, D. Wernli, Restoring the antibiotic R&D market to combat the resistance crisis, Sci. Public Policy 49, 127--131 (2022)
  24. M. Xia, L. Böttcher, T. Chou, Controlling epidemics through optimal allocation of test kits and vaccine doses across networks, IEEE Trans. Netw. Sci. Eng. 9, 1422--1436 (2022), arXiv:2107.13709, GitLab repo
  25. T. Schneider, O. R. A. Dunbar, J. Wu, L. Böttcher, D. Burov, A. Garbuno-Inigo, G. L. Wagner, S. Pei, C. Daraio, R. Ferrari, J. Shaman, Epidemic management and control through individual risk-tailored contact interventions, PLOS Comp. Biol. 18, e1010171 (2022), arXiv:2109.10970, GitHub repo
  26. L. Böttcher, N. Antulov-Fantulin, T. Asikis, AI Pontryagin or how artificial neural networks learn to control dynamical systems, Nat. Commun. 13, 333 (2022), arXiv:2103.06525, GitHub repo
  27. L. Böttcher, M. R. D'Orsogna, T. Chou, A statistical model of COVID-19 testing in populations: effects of sampling bias and testing errors, Philos. Trans. Royal Soc. A 380, 20210121 (2021), medRxiv:2021.05.22.21257643, arXiv:2105.11961, GitHub repo
  28. L. Böttcher, J. Nagler, Decisive conditions for strategic vaccination against SARS-CoV-2, Chaos 31, 101105 (2021), medRxiv:2021.03.05.21252962, GitHub repo
  29. L. Böttcher, G. Kernell, Examining the limits of the Condorcet Jury Theorem: Tradeoffs in hierarchical information aggregation systems, Collect. Intell. 1, 1--16 (2022), arXiv:2110.02298
  30. D. Wernli, M. Clausin, N. Antulov-Fantulin, J. Berezowski, N. Biller, K. Blanchet, L. Böttcher, C. Burton-Jeangros, G. Escher, A. Flahault, K. Fukuda, D. Helbing, P. D. Jaffé, P. S. Jørgensen, Y. Kaspiarovich, J. Krishnakumar, J. Berezowski, R. J. Lawrence, K. Lee, A. Léger, N. Levrat, R. Martischang, C. M. Morel, D. Pittet, M. Stauffer, F. Tediosi, F. Vanackere, J.-D. Vassalli, G. Wolff, O. Young, Building a multisystemic understanding of societal resilience to the COVID-19 pandemic, BMJ Glob. Health 6, e006794 (2021)
  31. L. Böttcher, M. R. D'Orsogna, T. Chou, Using excess deaths and testing statistics to determine estimates of COVID-19 mortalities, Eur. J. Epidemiol. 36, 545--558 (2021), medRxiv:2021.01.10.21249524, arXiv:2101.03467, GitHub repo
  32. L. Böttcher, M. A. Porter, Classical and quantum random-walk centrality measures in multilayer networks, SIAM J. Appl. Math. 81, 2704--2724 (2021), arXiv:2012.07157, Gitlab repo
  33. S. Wald, L. Böttcher, From classical to quantum walks with stochastic resetting on networks, Phys. Rev. E 103, 012122 (2021), arXiv:2008.00510, GitHub repo
  34. T. Asikis, L. Böttcher, N. Antulov-Fantulin, Neural ordinary differential equation control of dynamics on graphs, Phys. Rev. Res. 4, 013221 (2022), arXiv:2006.09773, GitHub repo
  35. P. Richter, M. Henkel, L. Böttcher, Aging and equilibration in bistable contagion dynamics, Phys. Rev. E 102, 042308 (2020), arXiv:2006.05937
  36. S.D.S. Reis, L. Böttcher, J.P. da C. Nogueira, G.S. Sousa, A.S. Lima Neto, H.J. Herrmann, J.S. Andrade Jr, Spatio-temporal characteristics of dengue outbreaks, Front. Phys. 10, 923099 (2022), arXiv:2006.02646
  37. L. Böttcher, M. Xia, T. Chou, Why case fatality ratios can be misleading: individual- and population-based mortality estimates and factors influencing them, Phys. Biol. 17, 065003 (2020), arXiv:2003.12032, medRxiv:2020.03.26.20044693
  38. L. Böttcher, N. Antulov-Fantulin, Unifying continuous, discrete, and susceptible-infected-recovered processes on networks, Phys. Rev. Res. 2, 033121 (2020), arXiv:2002.11765
  39. L. Böttcher, H. Gersbach, A refunding scheme to incentivize narrow-spectrum antibiotic development, Bull. Math. Biol. 84, 59 (2022), arXiv:2007.06468, medRxiv:2020.07.13.20152652, CEPR:DP15512
  40. F. D'Angelo, L. Böttcher, Learning the Ising model with generative neural networks, Phys. Rev. Res. 2, 023266 (2020), arXiv:2001.05361, GitHub repo
  41. L. Böttcher, A random-line-graph approach to overlapping line segments, J. Complex Netw. 8, cnaa029 (2020), arXiv:1911.10679
  42. S. Nauer, L. Böttcher, M. A. Porter, Random-graph models and characterization of granular networks, J. Complex Netw. 8, cnz037 (2019), arXiv:1907.13424
  43. S. Xu, L. Böttcher, T. Chou, Diversity in biology: definitions, quantification, and models, Phys. Biol. 17, 031001 (2020), arXiv:1908.08190
  44. L. Böttcher, H. Gersbach, The great divide: Quantifying drivers of polarization in the US public, EPJ Data Sci. 9, 32 (2020), arXiv:2001.05163, GitLab repo
  45. L. Böttcher, P. Montealegre, E. Goles, H. Gersbach, Competing activists--political polarization, Physica A 545, 123713 (2019), arXiv:1910.14531
  46. S. Strub, L. Böttcher, Modeling deformed transmission lines for continuous strain sensing applications, Meas. Sci. Technol. 31, 035109 (2019), arXiv:1912.13319
  47. M. Hoferer, L. Böttcher, H.J. Herrmann, H. Gersbach, The impact of technologies in political campaigns, Physica A 538, 122795 (2019), arXiv:1909.07644
  48. L. Böttcher, H.J. Herrmann, H. Gersbach, Clout, activists and budget: The road to presidency, PLOS One 13(3):e0193199. (2018), arXiv:1802.02048
  49. L. Böttcher, H.J. Herrmann, M. Henkel, Dynamical universality of the contact process, J. Phys. A 51, 125003 (2018), arXiv:1802.00037
  50. L. Böttcher, J. S. Andrade Jr., H.J. Herrmann, Targeted recovery as an effective strategy against epidemic spreading, Sci. Rep. 7, 14356 (2017), arXiv:1710.05807
  51. L. Böttcher, J. Nagler, H.J. Herrmann, Critical behaviors in contagion dynamics, Phys. Rev. Lett. 118, 088301 (2017), arXiv:1701.08988, GitHub repo
  52. L. Böttcher, O. Woolley-Meza, D. Brockmann, Temporal dynamics of online petitions, PLOS One 12(5):e0178062. (2017), arXiv:1705.04202
  53. L. Böttcher, M. Lukovic, J. Nagler, S. Havlin, H.J. Herrmann, Failure and recovery in dynamical networks, Sci. Rep. 7, 41729 (2017), arXiv:1610.00997
  54. L. Böttcher, O. Woolley-Meza, E. Goles, D. Helbing, H.J. Herrmann, Connectivity disruption sparks explosive epidemic spreading, Phys. Rev. E 93, 042315 (2016), arXiv:1604.07783
  55. L. Böttcher, N.A.M. Araújo, J. Nagler, J.F.F. Mendes, D. Helbing, H.J. Herrmann, Gender gap in the ERASMUS mobility program, PLOS One 11(2):e0149514. (2016), arXiv:1602.01442
  56. L. Böttcher, O. Woolley-Meza, N.A.M. Araújo, H.J. Herrmann, D. Helbing, Disease-induced resource constraints can trigger explosive epidemics, Sci. Rep. 5, 16571 (2015), arXiv:1508.05484, ssrn.2496128
  57. R. Mani, L. Böttcher, H.J. Herrmann, D. Helbing, Extreme power law in a driven many-particle system without threshold dynamics, Phys. Rev. E 90, 042201 (2014), arXiv:1404.7460
Books, chapters, conference proceedings, and other scholarship
  1. R. Klingebiel, L. Böttcher, Rank, Don't Vote: How a simple decision rule can improve project selection, to appear in Harvard Business Review
  2. L. Böttcher, G. Wheeler, Statistical mechanics and artificial neural networks: principles, models, and applications. In Yurij Holovatch (Ed.), Order, Disorder and Criticality: Advanced Problems of Phase Transition Theory 8 (2024)
  3. H. Gersbach, L. Böttcher, New incentives for antibiotics research and development, KOF Bulletin, No. 175, July (2023)
  4. L. Böttcher, Gradient-free training of neural ODEs for system identification and control using ensemble Kalman inversion, ICML Workshop on New Frontiers in Learning, Control, and Dynamical Systems at the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), Honolulu, Hawaii, USA (2023), arXiv:2307.07882
  5. L. Böttcher, Contagion dynamics in complex networks. In Andrew Adamatzky (Ed.) Automata and Complexity: Essays Presented to Eric Goles on the Occasion of His 70th Birthday (Emergence, Complexity and Computation 42), 75--82 (2022)
  6. L. Böttcher, H. Gersbach, Tax drugs to fight bugs (edited by John A. Whitfield), Research Europe (2022)
  7. D. Wernli, N. Antulov-Fantulin, J. Berezowski, N. Biller, K. Blanchet, L. Böttcher, C. Burton-Jeangros, M. Clausin, G. Escher, A. Flahault, K. Fukuda, D. Helbing, P. D. Jaffé, P. S. Jørgensen, Y. Kaspiarovich, J. Krishnakumar, J. Berezowski, R. J. Lawrence, K. Lee, A. Léger, N. Levrat, R. Martischang, C. M. Morel, D. Pittet, M. Stauffer, F. Tediosi, F. Vanackere, J.-D. Vassalli, G. Wolff, O. Young, Governance in the age of complexity: building resilience to COVID-19 and future pandemics (2021)
  8. L. Böttcher, H.J. Herrmann, Computational Statistical Physics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom (2021)
Media coverage and highlights You can find more information about my research and teaching (incl. planned workshops/conferences and job postings) on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Teaching

Year Courses
2023 -- Numerical Analysis of Dynamical Systems Machine Learning Computational Statistics Introduction to Data Analytics
2022 Numerical Analysis of Dynamical Systems Machine Learning Introduction to Data Analytics
2021 Introduction to Data Analytics
2020 Epidemic Forecasting Data Assimilation in Complex Social Systems
2019 Introduction to Computational Physics Computational Statistical Physics Dynamical Processes in Complex Networks
2018 Mathematik III
2017 Numerische Methoden

Pictures

Contact

Lucas Böttcher
Frankfurt School of Finance and Management
Adickesallee 32-34
60322 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
l dot boettcher at fs dot de