Publications

Articles

  1. L. Böttcher, M. A. Porter, S. Fortunato, Graph energy as a measure of community detectability in networks, preprint, Gitlab repo
  2. Nana Owusu-Boaitey, Mark J. Meyer, Daniel Herrera-Esposito, Lucas Böttcher, Maria Lukz, Sydney Cook, Michael A. Stoto, John D. Kraemer, Estimating COVID-19 cumulative incidence from seroprevalence surveys accounting for time-varying seroreversion: A fully Bayesian methodology, preprint
  3. L. Pagani, R. Leon-Sampedro, M. Amicone, B. Tepekule, C. Witzany, S. D. Brugger, M. de Vos, S. Mitri, E. Bakkeren, M. Bottery, L. Opatowski, G. Leventhal, K. Faust, L. Böttcher, S. Lehtinen, R. Kouyos, S. Bonhoeffer, The microbiome's role in antimicrobial resistance: from ecological dynamics to predictive models, preprint
  4. L. Böttcher, Control of dynamical systems with neural networks, Nonlinear Dyn. 114, 79 (2026), arXiv:2510.12810, Gitlab repo
  5. L. Böttcher, S. Felder, Determining the optimal sequence of multiple tests, Stat. Med. 44, e70254 (2025), medRxiv:2025.03.12.25323851, GitHub repo
  6. Y. Ge, L. Böttcher, T. Chou, M. R. D'Orsogna, Efficient portfolio selection through preference aggregation with quicksort and the Bradley--Terry model, J. Comput. Sci. 92, 102728 (2025), arXiv:2504.16093
  7. T. Wong, L. Böttcher, T. Chou, M. R. D'Orsogna, Alcohol-induced deaths in the United States across age, race, gender, geography, and the COVID-19 pandemic, PLOS Glob. Public Health 5, e0004623 (2025), medRxiv:2024.12.10.24318758, GitHub repo
  8. L. Böttcher, M. A. Porter, Clustering-induced localization of quantum walks on networks, Phys. Rev. E 112, L062301 (2025), arXiv:2412.04325, GitLab repo
  9. Y. Ge, L. Böttcher, T. Chou, M. R. D'Orsogna, A knapsack for collective decision-making, arXiv:2409.13236
  10. J. Zhang, X. Li, X. Guo, Z. You, L. Böttcher, A. Mogilner, T. Chou, A. Hoffmann, M. Xia, Reconstructing noisy gene regulation dynamics using extrinsic-noise-driven neural stochastic differential equations, PLOS Comput. Biol. 21, e1013462 (2025), arXiv:2503.09007, GitHub repo
  11. N. Owusu-Boaitey, L. Böttcher, D. He, R. Erkhembayar, L. Yang, D.-H. Kim, A. Barchuk, D. H. Gorski, J. Howard, Impact of cross-reactivity and herd immunity on SARS-CoV-2 pandemic severity, Infect. Dis. 56, 897--902 (2024)
  12. J. Li, T. Asikis, I. Fragkos, L. Böttcher, idinn: Inventory-dynamics control with neural networks, J. Open Source Softw. 10, 8508 (2025), GitLab repo
  13. L. Böttcher, M. R. D'Orsogna, T. Chou, Aggregating multiple test results to improve medical decision-making, PLOS Comput. Biol. 21, e1012749 (2025), arXiv:2409.16442, GitLab repo
  14. L. Böttcher, L. L. Fonseca, R. C. Laubenbacher, Control of medical digital twins with artificial neural networks, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 383, 20240228 (2025), arXiv:2403.13851, biorxiv:2024.03.18.585589, GitLab repo
  15. L. Böttcher, M. A. Porter, Dynamical processes on metric networks, SIAM J. Appl. Dyn. Syst. 24, 2848--2885 (2025), arXiv:2401.00735, GitLab repo, GitHub repo
  16. L. L. Fonseca, L. Böttcher, B. Mehrad, R. C. Laubenbacher, Optimal control of agent-based models via surrogate modeling, PLOS Comput. Biol. 21, e1012138 (2025), arXiv:2402.05750, GitHub repo
  17. L. Böttcher, T. Chou, M. R. D'Orsogna, Forecasting drug overdose mortality by age in the United States at the national and county levels, PNAS Nexus 3, pgae050 (2024), GitLab repo, arXiv:2309.14452, medRxiv:2023.09.25.23296097
  18. H. Masoomy, T. Chou, L. Böttcher, Impact of random and targeted disruptions on information diffusion during outbreaks, Chaos 33, 033145 (2023), arXiv:2301.00748, GitLab repo
  19. L. Böttcher, M. A. Porter, Complex networks with complex weights, Phys. Rev. E 109, 024314 (2024), arXiv:2212.06257, GitLab repo
  20. L. Böttcher, J. J. F. Breedvelt, F. C. Warren, Z. Segal, W. Kuyken, C. L. H. Bockting, Identifying relapse predictors in individual participant data with decision trees, BMC Psychiatry 23, 835 (2023), PsyArXiv:69ezt
  21. L. Böttcher, G. Wheeler, Visualizing high-dimensional loss landscapes with Hessian directions, J. Stat. Mech. Theory Exp., 023401 (2024), arXiv:2208.13219, GitLab repo
  22. L. Böttcher, T. Chou, M. R. D'Orsogna, Modeling and forecasting age-specific overdose mortality in the United States, Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. 232, 1743--1752 (2023), GitLab repo, arXiv:2303.16172
  23. L. Böttcher, R. Klingebiel, Organizational selection of innovation, Organ. Sci. 36, 387--410 (2025), arXiv:2405.09843, Gitlab repo
  24. L. Böttcher, T. Asikis, Near-optimal control of dynamical systems with neural ordinary differential equations, Mach. Learn.: Sci. Technol. 3, 045004 (2022), arXiv:2206.11120, Gitlab repo
  25. D. Wernli, L. Böttcher, F. Vanackere, Y. Kaspiarovich, M. Massood, N. Levrat, Understanding and governing systemic crises in the 21st century: a review from a complexity perspective, Glob. Policy 14, 207--228 (2023)
  26. L. Böttcher, S. Wald, T. Chou, Mathematical characterization of private and public immune repertoire sequences, Bull. Math. Biol. 85, 102 (2023), arXiv:2205.08750, biorxiv:2022.05.17.492232, Gitlab repo
  27. M. R. D'Orsogna, L. Böttcher, T. Chou, Fentanyl-driven acceleration of racial, gender and geographical disparities in drug overdose deaths in the United States, PLOS Glob. Public Health 3, e0000769 (2023), medRxiv:2022.06.22.22276766
  28. M. Xia, L. Böttcher, T. Chou, Spectrally adapted physics-informed neural networks for solving unbounded domain problems, Mach. Learn.: Sci. Technol. 4, 025024 (2023), arXiv:2202.02710, Gitlab repo
  29. L. Böttcher, T. Asikis, I. Fragkos, Control of dual-sourcing inventory systems using recurrent neural networks, INFORMS J. Comput. 35, 1308--1328 (2023), arXiv:2201.06126, IJoC GitHub repo
  30. N. Antulov-Fantulin, L. Böttcher, On the accuracy of short-term COVID-19 fatality forecasts, BMC Infect. Dis. 22, 251 (2022), arXiv:2107.09891, GitHub repo
  31. L. Böttcher, H. Gersbach, D. Wernli, Restoring the antibiotic R&D market to combat the resistance crisis, Sci. Public Policy 49, 127--131 (2022)
  32. M. Xia, L. Böttcher, T. Chou, Controlling epidemics through optimal allocation of test kits and vaccine doses across networks, IEEE Trans. Netw. Sci. Eng. 9, 1422--1436 (2022), arXiv:2107.13709, GitLab repo
  33. T. Schneider, O. R. A. Dunbar, J. Wu, L. Böttcher, D. Burov, A. Garbuno-Inigo, G. L. Wagner, S. Pei, C. Daraio, R. Ferrari, J. Shaman, Epidemic management and control through individual risk-tailored contact interventions, PLOS Comput. Biol. 18, e1010171 (2022), arXiv:2109.10970, GitHub repo
  34. L. Böttcher, N. Antulov-Fantulin, T. Asikis, AI Pontryagin or how artificial neural networks learn to control dynamical systems, Nat. Commun. 13, 333 (2022), arXiv:2103.06525, GitHub repo
  35. L. Böttcher, M. R. D'Orsogna, T. Chou, A statistical model of COVID-19 testing in populations: effects of sampling bias and testing errors, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 380, 20210121 (2021), medRxiv:2021.05.22.21257643, arXiv:2105.11961, GitHub repo
  36. L. Böttcher, J. Nagler, Decisive conditions for strategic vaccination against SARS-CoV-2, Chaos 31, 101105 (2021), medRxiv:2021.03.05.21252962, GitHub repo
  37. L. Böttcher, G. Kernell, Examining the limits of the Condorcet Jury Theorem: Tradeoffs in hierarchical information aggregation systems, Collect. Intell. 1, 1--16 (2022), arXiv:2110.02298
  38. D. Wernli, M. Clausin, N. Antulov-Fantulin, J. Berezowski, N. Biller, K. Blanchet, L. Böttcher, C. Burton-Jeangros, G. Escher, A. Flahault, K. Fukuda, D. Helbing, P. D. Jaffé, P. S. Jørgensen, Y. Kaspiarovich, J. Krishnakumar, J. Berezowski, R. J. Lawrence, K. Lee, A. Léger, N. Levrat, R. Martischang, C. M. Morel, D. Pittet, M. Stauffer, F. Tediosi, F. Vanackere, J.-D. Vassalli, G. Wolff, O. Young, Building a multisystemic understanding of societal resilience to the COVID-19 pandemic, BMJ Glob. Health 6, e006794 (2021)
  39. L. Böttcher, M. R. D'Orsogna, T. Chou, Using excess deaths and testing statistics to determine estimates of COVID-19 mortalities, Eur. J. Epidemiol. 36, 545--558 (2021), medRxiv:2021.01.10.21249524, arXiv:2101.03467, GitHub repo
  40. L. Böttcher, M. A. Porter, Classical and quantum random-walk centrality measures in multilayer networks, SIAM J. Appl. Math. 81, 2704--2724 (2021), arXiv:2012.07157, Gitlab repo
  41. S. Wald, L. Böttcher, From classical to quantum walks with stochastic resetting on networks, Phys. Rev. E 103, 012122 (2021), arXiv:2008.00510, GitHub repo
  42. T. Asikis, L. Böttcher, N. Antulov-Fantulin, Neural ordinary differential equation control of dynamics on graphs, Phys. Rev. Res. 4, 013221 (2022), arXiv:2006.09773, GitHub repo
  43. P. Richter, M. Henkel, L. Böttcher, Aging and equilibration in bistable contagion dynamics, Phys. Rev. E 102, 042308 (2020), arXiv:2006.05937
  44. S.D.S. Reis, L. Böttcher, J.P. da C. Nogueira, G.S. Sousa, A.S. Lima Neto, H.J. Herrmann, J.S. Andrade Jr, Spatio-temporal characteristics of dengue outbreaks, Front. Phys. 10, 923099 (2022), arXiv:2006.02646
  45. L. Böttcher, M. Xia, T. Chou, Why case fatality ratios can be misleading: individual- and population-based mortality estimates and factors influencing them, Phys. Biol. 17, 065003 (2020), arXiv:2003.12032, medRxiv:2020.03.26.20044693
  46. L. Böttcher, N. Antulov-Fantulin, Unifying continuous, discrete, and susceptible-infected-recovered processes on networks, Phys. Rev. Res. 2, 033121 (2020), arXiv:2002.11765
  47. L. Böttcher, H. Gersbach, A refunding scheme to incentivize narrow-spectrum antibiotic development, Bull. Math. Biol. 84, 59 (2022), arXiv:2007.06468, medRxiv:2020.07.13.20152652, CEPR:DP15512
  48. F. D'Angelo, L. Böttcher, Learning the Ising model with generative neural networks, Phys. Rev. Res. 2, 023266 (2020), arXiv:2001.05361, GitHub repo
  49. L. Böttcher, A random-line-graph approach to overlapping line segments, J. Complex Netw. 8, cnaa029 (2020), arXiv:1911.10679
  50. S. Nauer, L. Böttcher, M. A. Porter, Random-graph models and characterization of granular networks, J. Complex Netw. 8, cnz037 (2019), arXiv:1907.13424
  51. S. Xu, L. Böttcher, T. Chou, Diversity in biology: definitions, quantification, and models, Phys. Biol. 17, 031001 (2020), arXiv:1908.08190
  52. L. Böttcher, H. Gersbach, The great divide: Quantifying drivers of polarization in the US public, EPJ Data Sci. 9, 32 (2020), arXiv:2001.05163, GitLab repo
  53. L. Böttcher, P. Montealegre, E. Goles, H. Gersbach, Competing activists--political polarization, Physica A 545, 123713 (2019), arXiv:1910.14531
  54. S. Strub, L. Böttcher, Modeling deformed transmission lines for continuous strain sensing applications, Meas. Sci. Technol. 31, 035109 (2019), arXiv:1912.13319
  55. M. Hoferer, L. Böttcher, H.J. Herrmann, H. Gersbach, The impact of technologies in political campaigns, Physica A 538, 122795 (2019), arXiv:1909.07644
  56. L. Böttcher, H.J. Herrmann, H. Gersbach, Clout, activists and budget: The road to presidency, PLOS One 13(3):e0193199. (2018), arXiv:1802.02048
  57. L. Böttcher, H.J. Herrmann, M. Henkel, Dynamical universality of the contact process, J. Phys. A 51, 125003 (2018), arXiv:1802.00037
  58. L. Böttcher, J. S. Andrade Jr., H.J. Herrmann, Targeted recovery as an effective strategy against epidemic spreading, Sci. Rep. 7, 14356 (2017), arXiv:1710.05807
  59. L. Böttcher, J. Nagler, H.J. Herrmann, Critical behaviors in contagion dynamics, Phys. Rev. Lett. 118, 088301 (2017), arXiv:1701.08988, GitHub repo
  60. L. Böttcher, O. Woolley-Meza, D. Brockmann, Temporal dynamics of online petitions, PLOS One 12(5):e0178062. (2017), arXiv:1705.04202
  61. L. Böttcher, M. Lukovic, J. Nagler, S. Havlin, H.J. Herrmann, Failure and recovery in dynamical networks, Sci. Rep. 7, 41729 (2017), arXiv:1610.00997
  62. L. Böttcher, O. Woolley-Meza, E. Goles, D. Helbing, H.J. Herrmann, Connectivity disruption sparks explosive epidemic spreading, Phys. Rev. E 93, 042315 (2016), arXiv:1604.07783
  63. L. Böttcher, N.A.M. Araújo, J. Nagler, J.F.F. Mendes, D. Helbing, H.J. Herrmann, Gender gap in the ERASMUS mobility program, PLOS One 11(2):e0149514. (2016), arXiv:1602.01442
  64. L. Böttcher, O. Woolley-Meza, N.A.M. Araújo, H.J. Herrmann, D. Helbing, Disease-induced resource constraints can trigger explosive epidemics, Sci. Rep. 5, 16571 (2015), arXiv:1508.05484, ssrn.2496128
  65. R. Mani, L. Böttcher, H.J. Herrmann, D. Helbing, Extreme power law in a driven many-particle system without threshold dynamics, Phys. Rev. E 90, 042201 (2014), arXiv:1404.7460

Books, Chapters, and Proceedings

  1. L. Böttcher, T. Chou, M. R'Dorsogna, Forecasting U.S. drug overdose mortality by age, SIAM News (2025)
  2. R. Klingebiel, L. Böttcher, How to decide which innovation projects to greenlight, Harvard Business Review (2024)
  3. L. Böttcher, G. Wheeler, Statistical mechanics and artificial neural networks: principles, models, and applications In Yurij Holovatch (Ed.), Order, Disorder and Criticality: Advanced Problems of Phase Transition Theory 8, 117--161 (2024)
  4. H. Gersbach, L. Böttcher, New incentives for antibiotics research and development, KOF Bulletin, No. 175, July (2023)
  5. L. Böttcher, Gradient-free training of neural ODEs for system identification and control using ensemble Kalman inversion, ICML Workshop on New Frontiers in Learning, Control, and Dynamical Systems at the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), Honolulu, Hawaii, USA (2023), arXiv:2307.07882
  6. L. Böttcher, Contagion dynamics in complex networks. In Andrew Adamatzky (Ed.) Automata and Complexity: Essays Presented to Eric Goles on the Occasion of His 70th Birthday (Emergence, Complexity and Computation 42), 75--82 (2022)
  7. L. Böttcher, H. Gersbach, Tax drugs to fight bugs (edited by John A. Whitfield), Research Europe (2022)
  8. D. Wernli, N. Antulov-Fantulin, J. Berezowski, N. Biller, K. Blanchet, L. Böttcher, C. Burton-Jeangros, M. Clausin, G. Escher, A. Flahault, K. Fukuda, D. Helbing, P. D. Jaffé, P. S. Jørgensen, Y. Kaspiarovich, J. Krishnakumar, J. Berezowski, R. J. Lawrence, K. Lee, A. Léger, N. Levrat, R. Martischang, C. M. Morel, D. Pittet, M. Stauffer, F. Tediosi, F. Vanackere, J.-D. Vassalli, G. Wolff, O. Young, Governance in the age of complexity: building resilience to COVID-19 and future pandemics (2021)
  9. L. Böttcher, H.J. Herrmann, Computational Statistical Physics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom (2021)

Media Coverage